What seemed far away is now even further - revised views on the Saudi-Israeli normalisation prospects.

What seemed far away is now even further - revised views on the Saudi-Israeli normalisation prospects.
Photo by Jeremy Bishop / Unsplash

If the two-state solution was a prerequisite for the Saudis to normalise with Israel, then certainly, the historic war that started last Friday between Hamas and Israel has pushed the potential historic normalisation deal to an even further future.

Approximately a year ago, when the normalisation discussion appeared in the media, the Palestinian issue was not part of the conversation. Instead, what seemed to be the heart of the discussion were the Saudi demands to the US in exchange for the normalisation with the Jewish state. When the normalisation discussions gained more momentum, it became clear that when the Palestinian issue was not part of the normalisation narrative, it was so because the Palestinian issue for the Saudis goes without saying.

As pointed out in a podcast review, the Israel-Palestinian conflict is very much on the heart level of the Arab people, in addition to being a political issue. Seeing how much suffering the war brings to the Palestinians in Gaza, while these are still the early hours of the fighting, it is unlikely for the majority of the Arabs, including Saudis, to have much sympathy for the Israelis at this time, hence creating a considerable obstacle to the normalisation.

It is unknown what has been the actual content of the normalisation prospects discussed behind closed doors. As the Saudis have been adamant about the two-state solution as a prerequisite to the normalisation, were the Israelis about to make any concessions to the Palestinians? While we don't know that, it is pretty clear that concessions will not be on the Israeli agenda for weeks to come.