The normalisation we didn’t expect

Ever since the Abraham Accords were signed between the Gulf signatories and Israel, there has been speculation about who could be the next to join the normalisation agreement. Hopeless romantics wished it was Saudi Arabia and geopolitical thinkers and analysts speculated it could be Saudi Arabia. Instead, the next regional normalisation deal was made between the major regional foes - Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The deal, brokered by China in Beijing, came as a surprise to all the vested parties. Yes, there had been talks between the two regional heavyweights over the last years, but no one really anticipated they would restore relations in the foreseeable future. Regardless of the surprise element, the normalisation is welcomed all over, even by the United States, which remained modest in recognition of the restored relations.

Why though?

It is widely believed that the reasons for Saudi Arabia to negotiate with Iran and eventually reach an agreement were mainly due to the Kingdom’s security concerns. According to media reports, part of the normalisation deal was Iran’s promise to stop providing weapons to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran’s promise to halt arms deliveries to Houthis wrapped in the normalisation agreement should make any attacks from Iran and Houthi origin much less likely, thus increasing the Kingdom’s security. The hopes are that restored relations with Iran, on the backdrop of the US's gradual withdrawal from the Middle East, will provide the Kingdom with the security the US could not provide, such as the attack on the oil facilities in Khurais and Abqaiq in the fall of 2019. Keep the enemies close, right?

The enhancement of economic and cultural ties that come with the normalisation is a nicety. Security is essential. This also partially explains China’s interest in brokering the deal. Aside from showing itself as a global superpower able to mediate a conflict, China also needs a stable Persian Gulf to get energy for its own needs.  

What about normalisation with Israel?

Although the region's normalisation pace is staggering, we haven’t heard of reconciliation between Iran and Israel. The former is still resolute in swiping the Jewish state off the map. Mindful of that, what are the implications of the Saudi-Iran normalisation to the prospects of Saudis establishing relations with the Jewish state?

Before the normalisation discussed in this piece, one of the favouring arguments for the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords was seen by outsiders as creating a united front against Iran with the US and Israel. As it currently seems, Saudis will not be part of that front. What could be in it for Saudis, then?

According to reports in the media, MBS has outlined his conditions for the normalisation to Washington. Namely, the US-Saudi alliance being affirmed and weapons supplies would be provided as if Saudi Arabia were a NATO-like country, with an agreement allowing them to use their uranium reserves for a restricted civil nuclear program. Interestingly, none of the conditions was related to the Palestinian cause or directly about countering Iran. While Iran is no longer a common adversary for the Saudis and Israelis, there would still be a lot to gain for both parties, should there be normalisation.

Looking ahead

As of recently, Saudi Arabia and Iran were still arch enemies while Iran was and still is enriching uranium to reach weapon grade. Has Tehran’s nuclear ambitions left Riyadh indifferent overnight? Doubtful.

What, if anything, will the normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Iran mean for the normalisation prospect for Saudi Arabia and Israel? At the time of writing this, the tensions between the Israelis and Palestinians are at the highest they have recently been, directing Saudi public sympathies towards the Palestinians. Will Iran make an effort to hinder Saudi Israeli normalisation?

How will the US react to China’s success in brokering the deal? Will we see increased interest by Washington to counterweigh in the region?

While the developments are positive, directed towards conflict de-escalation and cooperation, time will tell how the normalised relations will affect Saudi Arabia and the region.

Let’s keep an eye on that.