Saudi-Israeli normalisation: a podcast summary

Came across a podcast offering quite a unique and valuable perspective from Saudi Arabia regarding the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalisation.

The normalisation prospects have been discussed here multiple times. In sum, the signals around the topic have been inconsistent and contrasting from the US and the Israeli sources. At the same time, virtually nothing has been heard from the main character of this discussion - Saudi Arabia. Thus, it is worthwhile paying attention.

Here are some of the takeaways from the podcast:

On the topic of Saudi demands for the US for normalisation with Israel:

• The Saudi demands for security guarantees, advanced weaponry and US assistance in the nuclear program are not official; these are the reports circulating in the media.
• Riyadh knows that their demands are difficult to get. The fact that it is a tall order creates a safe distance between Saudis and normalisation.
• Saudi Arabia is growing its agency. It is unclear if Saudi Arabia wishes to position itself under the US security umbrella, considering the potential for its agency to be curtailed. The question remains - why the demands, then?

There is also another side to this: what the US wants from the Saudis:

• Ending the Yemen conflict
• Limited or curtailed relations with China
• The US would expect some play-along regarding the oil prices. The question is whether Saudi Arabia is willing to concede in that regard.
  

Aside from the US-Saudi perspective, the following were the thoughts on the Saudi-Israeli side of this triangulation:

• As Saudi Arabia emerges as a regional leader and Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) positions himself as an Arab leader, there's a pressing need for significant progress on the Palestinian-Israeli front to legitimise Saudi-Israeli normalisation. Given that the Abraham Accords didn't yield the anticipated political leverage—with West-Bank annexation still ongoing and current right-wing moves of the Israeli government—the Saudis are seeking actions from Israel that genuinely promote the two-state solution.

Saudi Arabia and Abraham Accords:

• Saudi Arabia doesn't want to be perceived as a follower of the UAE regarding the Abraham Accords deal, and it was never suggested that Saudi would join the Accords.
• Saudi Crown Prince is big on pushing towards a prosperous region. Having learned that promises of the Abraham Accords have not been held, Saudi Arabia doesn't want to cut a deal with the US and Israel and the next day hear the Israeli government doing something crazy in Jerusalem or the West Bank.
• Saudi will be demanding tangibility. Not promises. Abraham Accords were made on promises, as the UAE did not receive F35 jets as of now and the Israeli settlements have continued.
  

Concluding thoughts from the podcast:

• Does Saudi really need to normalise with Israel? There are already covert or under-the-table relations between Saudi and Israeli security in intelligence and other avenues that have become relatively known.
• Israel's approach of emphasising a common enemy - Iran - has not worked since the Saudis normalised with Iran instead of normalising with Israel.
• Netanyahu's statement that the deal will finish the Arab-Israeli conflict is not the case, as the conflict is not on the political level but on the people-to-people level; this was also seen in the Qatar World Cup.
  

E2E  thoughts on the podcast

Overall, this podcast provided fresh insight and some clarity into the extensive controversy around the Saudi-Israeli normalisation topic.

In the way of summarising and highlighting, the following thoughts stood out:

• Saudis are not in a hurry to normalise. They are also not the ones to be influenced or incentivised into the normalisation.
• Nothing of substance can be accomplished before significant concessions toward Palestinians.
• Regarding the GCC, Saudi does not want to be and will make moves not to play second fiddle in the region. They are aiming for the top.
• Since Saudi won't be joining the Abraham Accords, they will have a different approach and deal altogether regarding the matters vis a vis Israel.