Saudi Arabia and Israel: A delicate dance between strategic interests and public sentiment
When it comes to hot topics concerning Saudi Arabia, the region, the world and geopolitics, certain things immediately come to mind. One of those topics is the lingering subject of Saudi Arabia normalising its relations with Israel. It is a complicated topic, for sure, with layers having layers to it. Let's try to unpack it slightly.
Publicly, what seems to be at the centre of this normalisation prospect, is the Palestinian issue. The Saudis hold the position that they are willing to move towards normalisation when there is hope for the Palestinian state. This position is something the Saudis have held for a long while already.
On the other hand, Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince, has reportedly presented a list of demands that Saudi Arabia would require to recognise Israel, as noted in the previous E2E analysis piece. None of the requirements consider the Palestinian issue and instead leave a very realpolitik impression on the Crown Prince's strategic calculus as opposed to the public rhetoric of brotherly compassion towards the Palestinians. Speaking of the Crown Prince's strategic calculus, there are several significant factors that he has to consider in the decision-making formula.
Saudi audiences at home and abroad
While the Kingdom has been in a fast-paced development, some subjects, such as the societal attitude towards Israel, might be harder to modernise. As a comparison, the normalisation calculus was different for UAE when signing the Abraham Accords in 2020 since the Emiratis constitute a fraction of the whole population in the country compared to the young majority Saudi population in the Kingdom. While the country is sailing towards Vision 2030, not rocking the boat too much is something that the leadership is likely well mindful of.
Looking from abroad, Saudi Arabia is home to the holiest sites in Islam. This means that the Muslim world is looking towards Saudi and their decisions vis a vis the Palestinian people. A fundamental shift in policy could raise a few eyebrows from the worldwide Muslim community. It could evoke displeasure with unforeseeable consequences such as economic and diplomatic boycotts and acts of terrorism by radical Islamists. Or is Saudi Arabia 'too big to fail' their global Muslim constituents?
Win-win-win
If the public statements made by the White House or Israeli officials, as open and promising as they sound, would be of any indication, it could be believed that work to normalise the relations is underway and perhaps could even be expected in the foreseeable future. The Saudi public voice remains conservative in this regard.
Should this normalisation deal materialise, it would benefit the signatories and hopefully bring a fresh perspective to the Palestinian issue. The collective steps the international community has taken to solve the Palestinian issue so far have not resulted in any lasting peace or progress that would satisfy the parties involved. Given this, an argument could be made that new ways should be pursued to achieve something that hasn't been achieved before.
If the Saudi-Israeli normalisation were the new way, it would bring both countries significant economic, technological, and security-related cooperation and investments.
There are also risks and more significant risks here for Saudi Arabia, as the normalisation move would be much more controversial for them than it would be for Israel. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is famous for taking risks. Will this be his next?